Friday, 10 July 2015

FOREX and Investment Perspective

FOREX and Investment Note


We haven’t progressed FOREX fully yet because it needs to be build on a high performance database system, the one I still prefer is Teradata.

It needs to be on that because the process needs to run with minute by minute price data, I can build the processes locally and then get them converted to Teradata but I can’t build something local that will deliver the performance that we need.

That requires Teradata developers and they don’t come cheap, so we need a larger funding pot to be able to deliver that, something that we’ll have soon.

I want to stress though, what the work that I’ve completed recently means for our FOREX, and other investment development.

There are two sorts of investment process that we’ll end up with, one like FOREX where we really just have price data to base our calculations on and other investment data (shares etc) where we’ll have price and volume data.

Alongisde that we’ll include as much pertinent data as we can, so Interest Rates for FOREX, and profit projects for a company.

We will build into our process as many technical analysis techniques and calculations as possible, along with advanced pattern spotting, to build logic to identify patterns that a trader would look to spot on a chart.

On top of that we will build our own calculations and blended calculations and we’ll track what happens to those calculations, it might be  a flag that gets set when a certain metric reaches a certain level, or when two metrics “Cross” (one goes above or below another).

We’ll also build in as many trading strategies as we can, both our own ones from analysing the data and traditional ones (I have lots of books on technical analysis and mechanical trading systems).

Then we’ll take it into the world I’ve just created where we build metric stores of various kinds – with metric events, strategy indicators etc. We’ll utilise all of the techniques that I’ve build recently but in a subtly different way.

We have the ability now to build something totally unique, a real decision engine that will sit on top of the more traditional technical analysis processes, and like Horse Racing, it will be based upon success percentages.

I haven’t seen anything that works in a similar way, and we have the potential to almost create our own market niche, and as it’ll be success % based, it’ll prove to be highly effective and successful.

Can’t wait to get started on it.



Thursday, 9 July 2015

Recent Data

Recent Data



Below is the data from the Final Step of the new processes, with no other filters on it.

I’ve added a potential system to it, wagering 10% each time of a bank that starts with $1000

As you can see, the consistent success rate sees a health process over the period and that’s just the historic data I was able to process overnight.

Some of the U (unplaced) horses had high odds to start with, and so going forward it is likely to be worth filtering those out up front, which would reduce the potential losses.

Date
Course
Time
Name
Pos
Odds
Bank
Stake
P/L
01-Jul-15
Perth
2.1
Improvisation
1
1.11
1,000.00
100.00
11.00
01-Jul-15
Worcester
3.2
Joe Farrell
1
1.14
1,011.00
101.10
14.15
01-Jul-15
Worcester
4.2
Towering
1
2.1
1,025.15
102.52
112.77
01-Jul-15
Worcester
4.5
Tobefair
1
3.75
1,137.92
113.79
312.93
01-Jul-15
Bath
7.05
Russian Reward
U
2.25
1,450.85
145.08
-145.08
01-Jul-15
Bath
7.35
Wordiness
1
1.91
1,305.76
130.58
118.82
01-Jul-15
Kempton (AW)
7.45
Mutawathea
1
5.5
1,424.59
142.46
641.06
01-Jul-15
Fairyhouse
8.55
Cradle Mountain
1
1.8
2,065.65
206.57
165.25
02-Jul-15
Perth
2.3
Jalingo
1
1.91
2,230.91
223.09
203.01
02-Jul-15
Lingfield (AW)
3.1
Solar Flair
1
1.73
2,433.92
243.39
177.68
02-Jul-15
Haydock
3.5
Galileo Gold
1
2.63
2,611.59
261.16
425.69
02-Jul-15
Lingfield (AW)
4.1
Cosmic Ray
1
3.25
3,037.28
303.73
683.39
02-Jul-15
Haydock
4.5
Birdman
1
1.8
3,720.67
372.07
297.65
02-Jul-15
Haydock
5.2
Miss Van Gogh
1
1.83
4,018.33
401.83
333.52
02-Jul-15
Bellewstown
8.15
Moonmeister
1
1.3
4,351.85
435.18
130.56
03-Jul-15
Doncaster
2
Druids Ridge
1
1.62
4,482.40
448.24
277.91
03-Jul-15
Doncaster
3
Bella Lulu
1
1.36
4,760.31
476.03
171.37
03-Jul-15
Newton_Abbot
3.45
More Buck's
U
3.75
4,931.68
493.17
-493.17
03-Jul-15
Sandown
4.3
Burano
U
9
4,438.52
443.85
-443.85
03-Jul-15
Doncaster
4.45
Gang Warfare
U
1.5
3,994.66
399.47
-399.47
03-Jul-15
Newton_Abbot
4.55
Easily Pleased
1
2
3,595.20
359.52
359.52
03-Jul-15
Sandown
5.05
Daghash
3
11
3,954.72
395.47
-395.47
03-Jul-15
Wexford
7.2
The Game Changer
U
1.62
3,559.25
355.92
-355.92
03-Jul-15
Bellewstown
7.4
Pincode
1
2.5
3,203.32
320.33
480.50
04-Jul-15
Sandown
2
Kingsgate Native
U
11
3,683.82
368.38
-368.38
04-Jul-15
Sandown
3.45
Golden Horn
1
1.44
3,315.44
331.54
145.88
04-Jul-15
Bellewstown
4.5
Marchese Marconi
1
1.29
3,461.32
346.13
100.38
04-Jul-15
Nottingham
6.45
All The Winds
1
4
3,561.70
356.17
1,068.51
04-Jul-15
Bellewstown
6.55
Nautical Nitwit
1
4.5
4,630.20
463.02
1,620.57
04-Jul-15
Bellewstown
6.55
Ultimate Horseman
2
4.5
6,250.77
625.08
-625.08
04-Jul-15
Bellewstown
7.55
Tesseract
1
2
5,625.70
562.57
562.57
04-Jul-15
Carlisle
8.05
Go Dan Go
1
3.25
6,188.27
618.83
1,392.36
04-Jul-15
Carlisle
9.05
She Is No Lady
1
2
7,580.63
758.06
758.06
05-Jul-15
Market_Rasen
2.15
Nabucco
1
1.44
8,338.69
833.87
366.90
05-Jul-15
Market_Rasen
2.45
Enchanted Garden
1
2.38
8,705.59
870.56
1,201.37
05-Jul-15
Limerick
3.1
Moon Dice
U
17
9,906.96
990.70
-990.70
05-Jul-15
Fairyhouse
4.35
Gussy Goose
1
2.5
8,916.27
891.63
1,337.44
06-Jul-15
Worcester
2.2
Patricktom Boru
2
2.38
10,253.71
1,025.37
-1,025.37
06-Jul-15
Worcester
3.5
Jayo Time
1
1.33
9,228.34
922.83
304.54
06-Jul-15
Ripon
6.35
Little Swift
2
1.3
9,532.87
953.29
-953.29
06-Jul-15
Ripon
8.35
Pyjama Party
1
1.4
8,579.58
857.96
343.18
07-Jul-15
Wolverhampton (AW)
2.25
Seek The Fair Land
U
3.75
8,922.77
892.28
-892.28
07-Jul-15
Pontefract
4.4
Pumaflor
1
2.63
8,030.49
803.05
1,308.97
07-Jul-15
Uttoxeter
7.45
Ulis De Vassy
1
1.83
9,339.46
933.95
775.18
08-Jul-15
Lingfield
2.1
Muhadathat
2
2.63
10,114.64
1,011.46
-1,011.46
08-Jul-15
Wolverhampton (AW)
3.2
Star Anise
1
3.5
9,103.17
910.32
2,275.79
08-Jul-15
Lingfield
4.1
Cashpoint
1
1.22
11,378.97
1,137.90
250.34
08-Jul-15
Wolverhampton (AW)
4.5
Diamond Ridge
2
1.8
11,629.30
1,162.93
-1,162.93